This article was first published on the 6th of April 2020 by Patrick Carpen.
Last updated: April 6, 2020 at 19:21 pm
Many people fear that the small South American country of Guyana might be on the brink of civil war. Not so long ago, the discovery of light crude promised immense wealth for the country. In fact, it was predicted that Guyana‘s economy would surpass that of China – 14 times over – for the year 2020 alone. And if oil prices remain stable, it would only get better.
But this lure of great riches which skyrocketed the hopes of the Guyanese people also had a negative effect. The two main political parties, PPP/C and PNC/R, are widely perceived to be ethnic-based. The PNC/R, now coated as the APNU/AFC, is supported mainly by Afro-Guyanese while the PPP/C is supported mainly by Indo-Guyanese. In the past, this has led to a bitter ethnopolitical divide. But with the promise of untold riches from the discovery of hydrocarbons off Guyana‘s shores, the bitter divide only worsened.
In 2011, the PNC/R teamed up with about 7 smaller multi-ethnic parties to form the APNU (A Partnership for National Unity). The APNU later teamed up with another party called the AFC to for the APNU/AFC coalition. The APNU/AFC coalition is headed by the PNC/R with the smaller parties having little to no input in decision making.
In most recent developments, the March 2020 elections in Guyana has been marred with riots, bloodshed and a rigged electoral process. The matter is currently before the courts with the majority of Guyanese and several international observers accusing the incumbent APNU/AFC of attempting to steal the elections and plunge Guyana into a state of dictatorship.
The David Granger Administration has so far abused the military and police force to cling to power despite apparently losing the elections. The Guyana Elections Commission had announced the APNU/AFC the winner even before the tabulation of Region 4 votes was completed.
Nationwide protests led to one civilian shot dead and several injured. One policeman has been fired for refusing to evict an international observer from the GECOM office. By all indications, the APNU/AFC government is now in a state of dictatorship by abusing the armed forces to cling to power.
Many people fear that the ongoing standoff will not end well. With the adrenaline factor, a few shots fired…a casualty here…a retaliation there…could soon erupt into a civil war. The Prime Minister of Trinidad commented, “I have a feeling this is not going to end well….I hope I’m wrong.”
Guyana is indeed on the brink of a civil war. Let’s hope it doesn’t go over the brink.
