First of all, one might ask, “what is a small, poor and powerless country as Guyana doing fighting a civil war?” And that is a good question! After all, Guyana can’t even properly feed its hungry, shelter its homeless and care for its sick, yet the country seems ready to go to war “with itself”? Maybe not.
Before speculating that Guyana is on the brink of civil war, let’s examine the factors which might be pushing that small, South American nation to the brink of a civil war.
Factors that are Pushing Guyana into Civil War
- A bitter past of racial division.
- Promise of oil wealth.
- Race-based politics and race baiting by political leaders.
- A winner takes all political system.
- A country slipping slowly into dictatorship.
A Bitter Past of Racial Division
Yes, racism is real. It is not always evident, but in the recesses of the human mind, behind closed doors and concealed in quiet whispers the prehistoric human trait of racial tendencies is very much alive. Many Guyanese have been fighting Guyana‘s racial past with an effort to bind and destroy racism, but they only experience mild to moderate success.
If we reflect on the racial slurs that were hurled during the recent post elections riots in March 2020, we can see that racism didn’t die in Guyana. And Guyana has been deeply wounded.
One of the most horrible stories of racial conflicts in Guyana is the infamous 1964 riots – a story in history that many Guyanese wish would fade into oblivion – but of which others would warn: those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. We’ll talk more about the 1964 riots later, but for now, let’s summarize it by saying that it was a clash between Afro-Guyanese and Indo-Guyanese which left many dead and wounded on both sides.
Promise of Oil Wealth
While there has always been tensions during election period, the stakes were never this high before. The promise of billions of US dollars in oil wealth, starting this year, have raised the stakes high enough to provoke a civil war. In fact, the 2020 elections in Guyana were dubbed “the mother of all elections.” That is because who wins it will control Guyana‘s oil wealth for the next five years and is likely to win the subsequent elections, thus staying in power for a long time.
Race Based Politics and Race Baiting
While one might be tempted to live in denial, Guyanese politicians have seized the opportunity to harness the human tendency to support “one’s kind.” The PPP/C seems to appeal mostly to Indo-Guyanese while the APNU/AFC seems to appeal mostly to the Afro-Guyanese. And while there certainly are Indo-Guyanese supporting the APNU/AFC as well as Afro-Guyanese supporting the PPP/C, these are the “exceptions” to the rule. Minority races such as Amerindians, Chinese and mixed races are almost evenly divided between the PPP/C and the APNU/AFC while some are distributed among smaller, emerging political parties. Very recently, the LJP, headed by Lenox Shuman, has touted itself as a party which represents the indigenous population.
A Winner Takes All Political System
The “winner takes all” political system in Guyana puts the winning party in total control and leaves the opposition in the cold. This fear of being hung out to dry will make both parties fight their hardest to gain or remain in power, and could lead to a bitter disappointment of nearly half of the country’s population which could soon erupt into violence.
A Country Slipping Slowly into Dictatorship
It is widely perceived that the APNU/AFC has lost the March 2020 elections and is trying to stay in power by abusing the armed forces. So far, one protestor has been killed by police fire and several injured. In addition, a senior police officer was fired from his job after refusing to evict an International Observer from the office of the Guyana Elections Commission.
Factors That Might Deter a Civil War
While all of the above factors might be pushing Guyana to the brink of a civil war, let’s not be too pessimistic, there are a lot of factors which are deterring Guyana from erupting into a civil war. Let’s take a look.
- The Presence of the International Observers.
- The Watchful eyes of the United States.
- The Organization of American States.
- An increasingly mixed race.
- A not-so-warlike people.
The Presence of International Observers
For the most recent March 2, 2020 elections, there have been a number of international observers in Guyana to ensure a free, credible and transparent electoral process. These include: the Carter Center, the European Union, the Organization of American States, the United States Ambassador, the Canadian High Commissioner, the Commonwealth and CARICOM. The presence of all these international powers have largely deterred the incumbent APNU/AFC from rigging the elections and further abusing the military to intimidate the opposition.
The Watchful Eyes of the United States
The United States, which has a vested interest in Guyana’s oil through ExxonMobil, also has a vested interest in preserving democracy in the Americas. On these grounds, the United States, through the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and other high level officials, have sent strong statements that they are keeping a close eye on Guyana and that they are committed to a democratic electoral process. This is probably one of the reasons that the APNU/AFC has finally agreed to a recount of votes – albeit still with a variety of hiccups.
The Organization of American States
The Organization of American States have sent observers to Guyana’s 2020 elections, and they went back sorely disappointed, hinting that the APNU/AFC was attempting to rig the elections. Since the OAS is a military alliance, losing the respect of the OAS is something the David Granger Administration, in good sense, would think twice about doing.
An Increasingly Mixed Race
Most of the ethno-political tensions and violence in Guyana’s past were fueled on racial grounds. The Afro-Guyanese, who are descendants of slaves brought from Africa, were always at loggerheads with the Indo-Guyanese who are descendants of indentured laborers from India. The two peoples have lived in distinct communities and villages for decades. However, at the turn of the century, there have been an emergence of a mixed race in Guyana through intermarriages, which resulted in more and more Guyanese identifying as mixed. This has largely helped to blur the lines of racism of Guyana. Nevertheless, the mixed race still makes up less than 5% of Guyana‘s population.
A Not So Warlike People
Unlike their African counterparts, the East Indians are, generally speaking, not a warlike people. They are of a more productive and progressive nature and are more interested in learning skills, getting an education and making money than engaging in armed conflict. Most of the East Indian population would prefer to migrate in search of a better life and would only engage in warfare as a last resort.
Given all of the above factors, we can safely conclude that Guyana has already started to suffer from some aspects of the resource curse. We hope that good sense and judgement prevail and that the leader of the APNU/AFC, Mr. David Granger, desists from pushing the country closer and closer to a civil war – a far fetched idea which could be closer to reality than we think.
References:
One Dead, Several Injured in Post Elections Riots in Guyana
US Secretary of State Tweets About Support for Democratic Transition in Guyana
High Court Rules to Block Swearing in of APNU/AFC Candidate
Organization of American States Says that Guyana’s Democracy has Suffered a “Terrible Blow.”
APNU/AFC Accuses International Observers of Siding with PPP/C
United States Warns Guyana that Electoral Fraudsters Will Face Serious Consequences
CARICOM Says that Guyana Government Would Lack Legitimacy if President Sworn In
“I Shout to the World: This is Wrong!” – Guyanese Citizen
Some Tabulation Totals Reflected More Votes than Voters – Commonwealth Observers
Norway Blocks 34 Million US Dollars Climate Change Aid to Guyana
Carter Center Says that International Observers Have Been Harrassed by APNU/AFC Supporters in Guyana
Guyana 2020 Elections Has Been a National Disaster – Member of Parliament
Citizens Brave Midnight Rain to Guard Ballot Boxes in Guyana
Nigel Hinds Says that He Thinks the PPP/C Has Won the 2020 Elections
An Illegitimate Government Will Not Have Foreign Assistance
UK Government Warns Guyana that an Undemocratic Government Will Result in Serious Consequences
United States Summons Guyana’s Ambassador to the United States
Lenox Shuman Says that APNU/AFC and Guyana Elections Commission are “Inseparable.”
Claudette Singh and Keith Lowenfield Lock Horns Over Recount of Region 4 Votes
Chief Justice Rules in Favor of Recount of Region 4 Votes
Lenox Shuman Says that it is “Clear” that the PPP/C Has Won Guyana’s 2020 Elections
US Ambassador Explains that Good Diplomacy is Not Foreign Interference
GECOM Once Again Stalls Recount Process
The OAS and What it Spells for Guyana
Trinidadian Prime Minister Expresses Deep Worry About Political Situation in Guyana
US to Ensure National Recount of Votes in Guyana is Free, Fair, Transparent and Credible
