This article was last updated on the 24th of September, 2015 by Patrick Carpen.
Question: Would the Obama Administration be willing to carry out airstrikes against the Venezuelan military in the event of an invasion?
My Answer: Perhaps. But such a decision can only be made after considerable fighting has taken place. On top of that, it may take months to finalize. In that time frame, too much damange would already have been done.
Question: Who is Venezuela’s most feared opponent in the Guyana/Venezuela standoff?
My Answer: Brazil. Brazil has one of the world’s most powerful military and she is no ally of the communist nation. The proximity of Brazil to both Guyana and Venezuela would make her a key player in countering Venezuelan agression.
Question: Does Brazil have any vested interest in defending Guyana?
My Answer: Yes. Guyana and Brazil share a strong friendship. Since most Brazilian cities in the North are landlocked, Brazilians have an interest in making use Port Georgetown for import and export purposes. Further, a large percentage of Guyanese businesses and enterprises are owned by Brazilians.
Question: What are the chances of Brazil entering the conflict in the event of a war between Guyana and Venezuela?
My Answer: 50/50. While for most it may seem unthinkable for the neighboring nation to sit back and watch, Brazilians are struggling with a lot of their own issues. Their economy has just entered one of the worst recessions in history and their dollar has been continuously devaluing. Further, Brazil pursues a policy of peace, and is always very hesisant in getting involved in any war.
On the 23rd of September, 2015, the headline of a local newspaper in Guyana read “Venuzuela moves soldiers and military equipment to Guyana’s border.”
For some time now, tensions between the two countries has been rising and falling. Around March 2015, the US Drilling Giant Exxon declared significant reserves of oil in the Atlantic Ocean off Guyana.
In July 2015, a bloomberg.com report stated that this discovery of oil and natural gases may be 12 times more valuable than Guyana’s entire economic output.
Venezuela has long claimed ownship of a vast territory of jungle and grassland that is internationally recognized to belong to Guyana. This is the county of Essequibo and it amounts to two-thirds of the entire country of Guyana.
In 1899, a panel of judges in Paris granted the territory to Guyana, which was at that time a Brtish Colony and called “British Guiana”. But in 1962, Venezuela challenged the ruling as unfair.
Over the decades however, Venezuela’s claim to Guyana seemed to have simmered out. But after the oil discovery in the Atlantic Ocean off the Essequibo, the monster reared its ugly head once more.
“Let there be no doubt about the legitimacy of our claim that the Essequibo is Venezuelan territory,” said National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, following Tuesday’s unanimous vote. “The Essequibo is Venezuela. The Essequibo is Venezuelan.”
At the time of this writing, Venezuela’s politics is extremely devasting. The country is literally divided in two with frequent violent outbreaks. But in an amazing twist of things, ALL Venezuelians seem to have united on one thing: the Essequibo belongs to Venezuela.
In July 2015, Venezuela started issuing ID to the 200,000 Essequibo residents and launched campaigns to convince them that they are better off under Venezuelan rule.
But recent reports from both the Media and travelers leaving Venezuela paint a grewsome picture of the country’s economy. It keeps sinking more and more. Violence spurred on by pro-government chavistas and their opponents leave many dead on a regular basis and put people’s lives in constant jeopardy.
Reports from travelers and the media speak of hunger, shortage of just about everything and people joining long lines for food and grocery. By all indications, Venezuela is desperate and has nothing to lose.
On the 20th of September, 2015, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced that the country plans to purchase 12 military jets from Russia. Confusing, isn’t it? Your people are starving and you purchase more tools of destruction. Humans never cease to amaze me!
On the 23rd of September, 2015, the headlines of Guyana’s local newspapers read “Venezuela moves troops and military equipment to Guyana’s borders as part of military exercise“.
The interminable debate now breaks out as to whether Venezuela will conjure the nerves to carry out a military operation against Guyana. Let’s face it: both countries are poor and weak and a war would most likely leave them both reeling from the backlash without anything gained.
Neither Guyana nor Venezuela has the finances required to engage in any military operation against each other.
But what would be the reaction of the international community if Venezuela does invade Guyana? Would the US just sit back and watch it happen? Some people argue that the United States has long wanted to strike Venezuela and its attack of Guyana would give the US just the grounds it needs.
On the other hand, it seems like Washington has its plate full. With ISIS running rampant and the US seemingly unable to counter this terrorist group, it would seem the United States is not on top of the game at all. On top of that, tensions between the United States and Russia, the United States and China, and the United States and North Korea has been rising over the last few months.
Add that to a cold war with Iran over its nuclear program, and you have a United States that is pretty much struggling to hold her grounds.
Besides that, it takes about one month or more before any nation might intervene in a war between Guyana and Venezuela and in that time, the damages done to both sides might be virtually irreversible.
With their own country falling apart economically, invading Guyana and plundering it would be an appealing move to any Venezuelian politician. For one, they feel they would gain financially. Secondly the invasion would definitely unite the two political opponents: the border dispute already has! Theoritically, after taking control of Guyana and its citizens, they could use the wealth and manpower to rebuild their own economy.
With Russia and China backing them, Venezuela would have pretty much have a heyday in the event of a Guyana takeover. It is a move that would supposedly bring then power and unity at the same time.
With the tensions rising steadily everyday, many people, both in Guyana and abroad, are wondering if Venezuela would be daring enough to launch a military operation against Guyana.
From my perspective, the chances of them doing so are more that 80%. I only pray to God that something stops them.